Thoughts about SEA limited (& other plunging listed tech stocks) and implication on tech startups

Was discussing SE today with Shao-Ning Huang. We were lucky to spot it in 2017/8, and bought our usual bite. The position quickly grew to be our top holding by far.  We sold on the way up and closed out position at 344 last year not due to any timing brilliance but because needed the funds.

When we spotted it, SE was trading at $10-20 or just 4-5 times sales, mostly profitable gaming and growing revenue 100+% per annum. we felt was a no brainer to buy! moreover, the gaming and e-commerce space are both huge. Sweetener is lots of Chinese high alumni working in SE.

So what do I think of SE now at 138? At 138, it’s trading at 7-8 times forward sales and the growth is slowing esp at gaming side. Gaming revenue also more fickle and hits can lose favor. Also now composition of revenue is a lot of loss making ecommerce. Add on the rising ir environment which bashes down all growth valuations and the picture is not rosy for stock price.

So we will correspondingly adjust our bite sizing and expectation. Recently sold some puts from 100-145. Aiming to build a normal sized position at anything below $120 blended. Won’t go crazy to buy beyond normal bite unless it plunges irrationally below $80. And If plunge for good reason also won’t add.  

Bottom line: easy money made on SE for foreseeable future. Likewise for many loss making growth stocks. Be very careful everyone.

Side note:  results coming out in Feb will say a lot on direction. Likewise for grab coming results must see before doing any big move on it. Also it’s not all rosy for us in this downdraft too. Caught by surprise by the depth of Chinese tech sell down. Easily lost 0.5m there since Jan 2021 to now. Lucky kept to bite sizing discipline and did not add. Falling knife can keep falling.

HOW ABOUT TECH STARTUPS?

So how about unlisted tech startups valuations. If listed side falls to 5-10 times forward sales, how much you think a much smaller and also loss making startup should be worth? Quite concerned here as we have big positions in tech startup space. Looks like we have to be even more disciplined to make sure don’t overpay for new and follow on funding. 

A sure test ahead will be the various spac attempts and loss making unicorns trying to fund raise and/or create exits. Will they have large down rounds coming up or will they be able to still list or sell out at decent valuations? 

And for founders, better build something profitable which gives you infinite runway or at least make sure you plan for poor funding climate where there may still be VC money or trade sales or IPOs but investors want much lower valuations. 

Startup Portfolio Report for 2021 - Liquidity trumps covid

2021 has turned out to be a banner year in spite of Covid. As I mentioned in my life review of 2021, Covid has resulted in greater inequality and unfairness in the distribution of world resources.  The reason is because govts have to inject lots of money into their economy and keep interest rates low in order to save jobs, certain industries and not cause a downward spiral. And while much of this money helped do just that, a lot of it also flowed to inflate financial assets and that means listed stocks, unlisted stocks and even crypto assets, properties and commodities.

We invested in 6 new startups in 2021 and did follow on rounds with 9 more. This is a new record for us in terms of amount invested.  Add on our Vc investing, we have invested over S$7m into the ASEAN startup space. As of end 2021, 41 startups and 8 VC funds. 

Generally 2021 has been a good year for the startup ecosystem and hence our diversified portfolio. Only the travel and events related startups continue to hurt badly and we do expect to maybe see 1-2 failures this year if they are unable to raise capital. However, almost all the rest grew significantly business wise with healthcare players like Homage and Alodokter growing a lot and raising large rounds at much higher valuations.  We also had Patsnap that became an official unicorn.

We did have a execution specific problem with a centaur startup that resulted in a 1+m write down. It’s clear it’s execution specific because another startup we have from similar space just turned around to good numbers. As a result of this write down, our direct startup investments did not improve on IRR though it’s still a great performance. From 2015 till end 2021, IRR is sitting at 38.83% (drop from 40+% last year) and the portfolio has a 2.98 TVPI. 

VC did very well as they did not suffer from any major winning startup write down. The 8 funds we invested are at 2.47 tvpi (from 1.98 last year) with IRR harder to calculate since all slightly different vintage and drawdowns. But we started investing in 2014-2015, so I would estimate IRR  in mid to high 20s.

Here are some learnings and thoughts we have:

1) Investing in the same sector may not be such a bad idea provided we are clear not to share info across competitors. At least we still get to participate in the sectorial growth and have 2 shots at the goal instead of just one. But it’s important to make sure both founders know and to not reveal any sensitive info.

2) Diversification and bite sizing matters. Having 41 startups allow for portfolio to handle black swans like Covid. Similar bites also allow the winners to do the hard work of lifting up entire portfolio. Last thing we want is to have a 30 bagger on an undersized position. Furthermore by investing in 8 VC funds, we have another 100+ to 200 startups in the region. This adds to diversification and also adds on an indexing effect.

3) VCs are a good asset class if riding the cycle up. We started in 2014 on the thesis rising tech/startup tide will lift all boats. True enough, VC funds rode the upswing. If you study almost any of the Vc funds started back then, they all have 1,2,3 great winner that return so much that it should have returned entire fund. Vertex, Jungle, Monkshill, wavemaker, Goldengate, 500 all have their own unicorns and centaurs. 

But it’s important to note fees really affect things. The current difference between our own startup portfolio and VC is almost entirely the fees and carry.

4) Startups will require a lot of follow on decision making. Our policy is to generally follow all bona fide next rounds up to a limit of about $200k. But we are beginning to wonder if it is worthwhile following less strong bridge rounds. On one hand we want to support founders but so far the data shows many bridges tend not to work out that well.

Looking ahead this year, we expect to continue investing in 5-6 startups and for sure there will be some follow on. The funding climate should continue to be strong as we know VC dry powder is still aplenty. 

One big danger is the current rerating of high growth loss making listed stocks. Grab, Sea, Buka have all crashed anything from 40-50%. Likewise other nasdaq listed counterparts like crwd, OKTA, palantir etc. If this continues or worsens, there will be a rerating at PE level and hence startups will also be affected. An upcoming barometer will be if carousell/traveloka/carro etc SPACs can happen and if they happen, how they trades. Crashing like Grab for a prolonged period will make future SPACs fail. It’s telling why these startups  are not IPOing normally like sea or razer did. I believe it’s because SPAC has biased price discovery and so they get better valuation and less oversight in a bubbly environment. Hope those we are vested in manage to squeeze in their SPAC in time! 

Anyway, rerating of valuations and the subsequent liquidity squeeze need not be a bad thing as it will show who is swimming naked when valuations drop and profit margins come to fore. 

So to fellow investors, do be thankful for your gains and remember to give back to the society that enabled it. For fellow founders, the easy valuations and fund raising could get harder, focus on building both a profitable and scaled up business. That way even if really funding gets tough to obtain, at least you just grow slower by reinvesting profits and not end up with a distressed situation. 

Purposeful Life - 2021 in review

I had hoped that 2021 would be a year where life got back more to normal. But instead it just felt like a re-run of 2020. Quite tough year actually as I felt very stuck. In fact this year made it very clear that doing well at work or portfolio has a weakened  link to happiness for me. The link was super strong when I was in early 30s for sure. 

Being an internal scorecard person who enjoys experiencing old and new things, being restricted in movement, socialization and travel hit hard this year.

Turned 46 this year and when I reread last years review post, glad to know the 3 purposes i wrote down and the values associated did not change. Though I must say purpose 3 doing very well numerically but not resulting in more fulfillment is worth paying attention to.

Purpose 1 - Help and be there for family. Extend to friends if i can.

Purpose 2 - Be as healthy as I can

Purpose 3 - Be a good custodian of wealth and knowledge. help grow startup ecosystem via angel investing & AngelCentral.  Contribute to broader society as volunteer.

Quite a lot happened on all 3 fronts.

Purpose 1 :  Good relations with Family & Friend & contribute to their lives

Goals: High level of family/wife/friend time. Share more learnings with kids.

Oldest son enlisted in April. 2nd son had A levels, 3rd son entered Sec 1 and 4th son entered P1. All major life events for kids. So this year, wife & I had hands full ensuring all 4 get the right attention and help when they needed it. Its very hard to do it all well. We tried to have family bonding time by singing Karaoke at home, having staycations during March and Dec holidays and family dinners daily where we discuss topics or share our day. But as the kids get older, they become adults and we just have to hope we did enough right for them to be happy, fulfilled and useful people. 

Dad turned 80 in Dec and the great news is that i am now staying with him for a couple of months this year while waiting for new place. Got a new place as we need a larger space for 4 fast growing kids and we ourselves need more space. Definitely consequence of Covid. It has been fun watching Dad go about his daily life these few weeks. A good role model on aging actively. 

As for Ning, we are closer than ever with so much more time to spend together. We celebrated our 20 year anniversary so busy with moving house that all our plans of a photoshoot or travel or even staycation took a back seat. Hopefully can make it up in 2022. I must say finding a life partner that grows alongside you is super critical to happiness and achievement. I am very happy to have found one and I hope she feels the same way about me too.

As for friends, time with them really fell this year with all the restrictions happening. A lot of meetings for forum/peer groups happened on zoom, old school friends met opportunistically whenever we could meet in groups of 5 or 8. Even managed to attend a wedding for a relative. But these in person social events were far and few between. 

So while i can say i managed to continue on family bonding, friendships took a big backseat this year. Hope to remedy that this year with more socializing when allowed.

Purposes 2  : Be Healthy Mind and Body

GOALS: Keep lean, weight below 70kg. Control mood better through exercise and mindfulness.

Managed to keep to a regular exercise routine of 4-5 times a week. Weight hover 68-70kg. Mostly jogging, yoga with more swimming compared to 2020. In fact, i found myself heading out to the beach almost weekly at one stage. And i would spend a good 3-4 hrs there just chilling and swimming. Singapore has one or two nice beaches still with decently clear waters on some days. Interestingly, the beaches are mostly empty though Dempsey is always full during this WFH period. Don’t make sense to me but I am not complaining.

Purpose 3 :Portfolio mgmt & Work role in Society

Goals: min 10% long term annual growth on investable net worth.  hit 100 startups for angel investment doing well as a portfolio. Quality volunteer in any such work I take up.

Portfolio Work

Its very strange that COVID has resulted in one of the best years portfolio wise. Portfolio overall went up by a record high teens return with PE fueling most of the gains followed by the public equity markets. The market is fueled by huge liquidity and low interest rates. I am not sure how long this party can last but my gut says its reaching the end soon. There is already a clear rotation in the public markets where loss making growth is being sold down in favour of financials and value stocks. China tech is our sole detractor this year losing a good chunk due to the crackdown on BABA and like. We are holding but not adding. We are also mindful that PE gains esp startup gains can be ephemeral and may disappear overnight. So we always keep them at book value.

I am still very much focused on compounding over the years at a good rate. One good practice is that Ning & I sit down monthly to discuss portfolio like a business and we make decisions jointly that are split up for execution. This formalization of activity reduces stupid decisions when investing and also fosters accountability. We are also mindful that the more systematic we get, the easier it will be to involve more family members down the road. 

The other confirmation/takeaway i have is that the capitalistic system is really very unfair and it reminds me that those who benefit really must try to do more to be generous and fair minded to everyone. This global pandemic has greatly enriched people who invest in stocks and private equity. Since 2018 to now, an investor in S&P500 would have almost doubled their money! So while some workers have to rely on govt help to tide through the pandemic, many others have made much more money just by owning shares. From this angle, China's push for common prosperity as a resource allocation philosophy is not wrong at all. 

Startup/AngelCentral Work 

Angel portfolio side now at 41 startups in total. We invested in 6 more startups this year and a few of our startups had large uprounds. Likewise, the very tech heavy VC and PE funds we invested in also had large writeups. Combined, our PE side was up 20+% on mark to market basis. The only exception remains the L Capital Fund which has continued to write down. Really the saying that a dog will stay a dog holds true in this case. We also had a startup in the travel space that continues to be badly hit by COVID. See analysis of startup portfolio for 2021.

On AngelCentral side, under Ning leadership, we continued to grow and carried on with our mission of building effective angels in ASEAN. As an angel club, we funded another 5-6M into various startups and successfully helped them form 6 new syndicates. What is heartening is that we also see other syndicates and angel groups being formed. While on one level it is competition, on another level it bodes well for our ecosystem to have more activity and validates that what we do is useful. 

Volunteer Work

Continued volunteering with ITE, PEP and SWCDC. I don't believe in constantly seeking new titles and roles to do. I believe real value get created when one sticks to a commitment and role. Having said that, I may find a new commitment this year to do more for. Also need to catch up on charity giving since we want to give away 2% of profits/income made over time. 

 

In Summary, my goal for 2022 is much more of the good stuff of 2021, but with an added dimension of going back to traveling. Aim is to have a short trip in 1Q. hope it works out! Not promising no thanks to omicron rise…