Startup Valuations in Recessionary Environment

Just 1+ mth ago back in early feb,  I was noticing that startup space esp early startup space, (Early meaning Series A , Seed space) seems largely living in lala land where valuations don’t seem affected by slowdown or is anyone worried about the spread of coronavirus.

Now the situation in my assessment should and will change  as the entire world economy is whacked big across the board and for the foreseeable future.

The funny thing is I still see startups thinking of valuing based on revenue or profit multiples that are totally out of whack with listed comparables. Here are some facts:

1) crazy guy in the room giving crazy valuations is in deep crap themselves having to sell prime assets now to redeem debt and show value. So no more crazy vision fund bets distorting market. And there is no one to replace them. 

2) loss making Uber is now worth about 6-8 times 2019 revenue high. i suspect if we use real revenue on grab and gojek they are really worth 40-50% less than last round which is validated by what secondary sales is showing. 

Slightly loss making grub hub is worth about 2-2.5 times it’s revenue. Saas which should benefit has also seen a rerating with profitable salesforce being valued at ps ratio of 7. The list goes on and the revaluation has happened and is not done.

So what to make of all this? Private Startup valuations should at least fall 20-30% just to follow market comparables. Add another 10-20% if you are not profitable or dominant in space. 

That brings us back to startup seed valuations at S$2m-4m or so. Or back to 2010-2013 levels which makes more sense. Series A should adjust accordingly. And maybe quick path to profit should be an indicator too. 

PE ratios back in 2002-2010 used to be 8-15 times for tech plays depending on strength of business. Go do the math..

This is not a sell serving article because I stand to lose a lot more if valuations go down than up having already invested in 31 startups and 7 VCs. We still intend to invest in 3-4 more startups this year and have already done 1 new investment and 3 follow on this year in engagerocket, worq and rara delivery.  For us it’s about backing founders. 

My goal is to tell founders to not live in lala land any more and don’t count on getting any easy outside money if this situation prolongs another quarter. And if you do survive, know that your business is probably worth a lot less than you think now. All this should generate actions on your part and behavioral change. I hope I am wrong and we get a V shape recovery 2nd half.. but we don’t plan on hope...

The only little silver lining is some VC at A and B rounds have dry powder. (Provided no pulling of LP capital. Not likely right now but we never know.) so this is a time to know if your VC really support you or not on cash infusion or loans.

Another positive note is that founders should also remember that many successful businesses grew out of tough recessions and were built with little or no early investor money. Building a profitable business in a recession strengthens your efficiency and mindset. And once you have a high quality profitable business, there will be lots of ways to monetize your hard work when the upturn comes!

Staying financially alive in a crisis

(Shaoning has a great post on this topic and it inspired me to elaborate with more detail to help fellow founders.)

First post for the year and its against a backdrop of great uncertainty and fear in financial markets, business world and society in general. The COVID-19 coupled with the oil shock has as of today resulted in a paralyzed, shellshocked West and a winded East. What i have learned going through 2000 tech crash, 2003 SARs and 2008 GFC is that pendulums tend to swing to the extreme aided by self-reinforcing fears and panic. This does not mean that we should be cavalier about things and just work on a best case recovery assumption. Rather it means we recognize this crisis while large is not a world changer in any meaningful way. Yes some governments which are inept may be voted out, some people/companies will go bankrupt and most sadly, some people will die of the virus who could have been saved if we acted differently. But this will not change the world like the way democracy or religion or even the internet/iphone did.

FOR INVESTORS

So what should we do as investors and startup founders? First investors, take it easy and slow and have a plan as the market gyrates. Cash is king. Invest following whatever your personality fits best. Some people buy the way down, some buy the way up. Most important, do not Over-Leverage!. Never have to sell a financial asset due to margin calls or daily expenses. For our situation, we have a hard cap of 28%  on total leverage on all assets.  You need to figure out your own.

Second, keep to your asset allocation. A balanced portfolio or conservative portfolio would actually have only seen a 3-10% drop YTD. Its just part of last years gains. Compare this to stock market drop of 25% and  some individual stocks drop of 50-80%. 

Thirdly, keep the diversification. Don't own too much of one counter or industry. This means no single stock risk more than 5% of portfolio for me. Personally, i am prepared to buy 5 times of ETFs, dividend stocks and technology stocks all the way from S&P@3000 until S&P@1200 and STI@1200. This is below GFC levels substantially and at that level will involve some careful leverage and selling bonds. It also involves being much picker. Why buy speculative loss making tech like EB or ZEN or Z when you can buy AAPL, BABA, FB, GOOG, AMZN at super discounted prices? This means at current S&P 2400, we have action plans for markets falling much more.

As for private equity investments like startups or VC funds, we have always espoused keeping to just 5-10% of net worth and to put them at book value. So these should continue on maybe at a slower and more careful pace. Esp if you are investing in early stage startups, i would argue valuations will get better and you can get better quality founders in times of crisis. No wantrepreneur would run a startup during bad times! 

FOR STARTUPS

You are in a much tougher situation. A few will be lucky and have huge demand due to your sector (healthcare, delivery, cleaning etc)  but most will  be in reverse situation.  The most important thing i can share is to take action and control of your destiny. Don't be passive and hide or be in denial. That will be worst attitude to take. You need to act on revenue , cost and cashflow to tide through this period.

Second, estimate your cashflow. Make sure you have enough cash to last at least 18 months. If you don't, cut costs and drive revenue until you can. Assume no more new investment money coming in. At the same time, apply and get credit facilities that will help you get cash in quickly. Now, some founders balk at personal guarantees required to get credit, all i have to say on this topic is do you have proper shareholding alignment and are you a wantrepreneur or the real deal? Don’t forget you raised capital convincing investors this is your do or die. 

And even if you do have the cash ( i know many more fortunate startups just raised capital), I suggest to still try to cut costs and extend it to 24-30mth.  Do a worst case scenario and an average case scenario planning. Then create trigger points where you take certain actions. 

Third, some actions you can take should cut across all functions and levels so that it is clear it is an all company effort. Mgmt lead by example.  So if you cut salary, cut your own the most first. It gives your moral authority.  If you don't agree (see the point earlier about personal guarantees). Areas to watch and change include :

Manpower Cost-  salary reductions/freezes (use the MVP component) , no bonuses declared, no pay leave, headcount reduction. For example, I just saw a early stage startup advertise for chief of staff role. What the hell?? The only Chief of Staff i know is in the US Cabinet. In bad times, founders need to roll up their sleeves even more so that the correct tone is set in office.

Marketing Cost - Cut marketing expenses to something commensurate to revenue. Don't try to grow ahead or just rely on LCV math. For example, if you normally spend $10K per month on conversions, try to spend $6 or $8K and just get the more profitable leads, dont bother with the expensive ones. And drop branding related advertising spend as much as possible,

Other Cost - Rent. See if you can make it 2% of your total expenses if you are a pure software play.  Do you really need downtown or coworking location? We had about 100 staff in 4500 sqft of space with meeting rooms and storage area and pantry. Be cheaper than us.

Other Cost - Staff welfare expenses. Do you really need to spend more than $200 per staff per year on welfare? A lot of team bonding activities can be free. This is not significant but it is setting the tone.

Cashflow Mgmt - Create packages that collect cash upfront. Chase AR religiously and don't be the bank for your clients.

Strategic - Stop overseas expansions and maybe close down new product lines or geographies that do not generate sufficient cash and which keep burning.

Talent - top performers should still get recognized, paid well and maybe even get some bonuses and increases.  Use the opportunity to remove bad performers. 

The above areas are all cost linked. Frequently, my experience is that cutting just helps you become more efficient and a downturn is a good reason to test your efficiency. I honestly feel most startups today behave like an MNC  in terms of perks but without the commensurate revenues and profits.  What is critical is that you comminicate the reasons for all the changes. This will be a good time to see if your staff trust you and whether you have built a good culture of teamwork and togetherness.

Next is revenue side.

Sales - If you are a startup with product market fit already, the one thing you don't cut is performing sales. If you can sell your way aggressively out of a recession, you tend to become very strong. For example during GFC, we created specially discounted packages to go after SMEs with a tagline that we are here to help them. At same time, we reminded MNCs and Govt that had recruitment freezes that even if not hiring they should spend a bit of money on employer branding so that when upturns comes, they have improved their employer brand. 

For sales, this is also an opportunity to fire bad paymaster clients and replace them with safer clients in terms of payment terms. Remember honestbee. They can always fold and don't pay. Then you need to write off the AR. That is even more painful and its usually better to not have that revenue in first place.

Sometimes, its just bad luck. You are in a sector that is really bad like travel or tourism. Then i would argue your leadership and strategy matters even more. As a small startup you have huge overhead and cost advantage over your big competitors who will be feeling even more low morale and burning even more cash. They will be pressuring their sales staff, cutting headcount and removing pantry benefits. This is the best time undercut and out sell them. If you have sufficient cash in bank, i would argue it is the best time to grow market share. This is exactly what happened from dot com crash in 2000 to 2006. The job portals basically stole SPH lunch in terms of recruitment advertising revenues.

One caveat though. If you find yourself mentally breaking down (much more than normal stress) or if clearly cash balance is not going to make it, there is no shame in calling it quits and shutting down. And pls assess risk properly, don’t wait until you owe employees and fellow sme owners lots of money before shutting down. That’s called self- denial, selfish and irresponsible!

Hope this sharing is useful. i may sound a bit extreme in my cost cutting thinking but it actually how most very profitable SME run. Its time our startups learn to do the same and who knows, maybe we will have a surge of profitable startups emerging once the winter ends. Imagine being so well run, you can fire your Vc and not need to raise anymore!

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On Purpose - 2019 in Review

Another year passes so quickly. I have always been searching for the right framework to live and the picture seems slightly clearer this year. Previous posts have always been on stuff done and learning. I think i have enough to now take a step back and frame all the stuff. See if it makes sense and is useful to you.

Life is about having purpose. Purpose creates motivation and challenge which generates plans, execution and hopefully reward. It also acts as a time allocation device. Goals are what we set to achieve our purpose. One can have multiple purposes though it’s best to keep it to a few at best. Purposes can change after many years.

Life is also about pleasure or fun. Pleasure can be physical, mental or spiritual.  Exercise, beauty, learning new stuff, travel, eating etc.

Life needs connections with others. Can be family, friends, fellow workers, volunteers even animals etc. the mental need for social interaction should not be underestimated.

Life is about balance. The trick is to exist at the dynamic moving intersection of all the above and be happy with the current state and future trajectory state. This requires me to cultivate gratitude and contentment to handle the inevitable tension and trade offs between various purposes.

And what of happiness? Happiness happens easily when above is achieved. However, personally for me,  the issue of focus and the problem of drifting and feeling like a bystander is still there because this more multi-faceted life is still in vast contrast to the obsessive single purpose life I had previously in JobsCentral. Ning says it best when she remarked about how life was simpler but when we only just wanted JobsCentral to succeed.

So bearing above in mind, here goes:

Purpose 1 - help and be there for family. Extend to friends if i can.

Purpose 2 - be as healthy as I can

Purpose 3 - Be a good custodian of wealth. help grow startup ecosystem as angel investor.  Contribute to broader society as volunteer.

From the above, I generate goals and results as posted before. Below is an update.

Purpose 1 :  Good relations with Family & Friend & contribute to their lives

Goals: High level of family/wife/friend time. Share more learnings with kids.

2nd son had O levels. Very proud of the way he studied hard without much pressure from us. Our boys are a major focus for Ning & I. Number 3 also did well and seems to have matured. Likewise number 1 and 4 are growing up nicely. Perhaps a little too quickly for number 4. Goal is to bring up well adjusted, contributing and happy people.

Celebrated wedding 18 years anniversary. Love wife very much. Dad still going strong and traveled with us to Taiwan for 20 days. He also went to South America for almost 4 weeks with my sister earlier in the year! Still miss my mum and think of her every few days.

A very old friend of mine finally found a life partner and got married in 2018. This year became a father. Its actually hard to keep in touch with old friends and it requires a special effort to always organize group dinners. Still, my experience is that its worth it each time.

Purpose 2  : Be Healthy Mind and Body

GOALS: Keep lean, weight below 70kg. Pick up more outdoor sport. Control mood even better through exercise and mindfulness.

Body - improved with cholesterol dropping a bit. Weight maintained at 68-70kg range. Health screen all clear. 5-6 times exercise per week.

Mind- mentally up and down but not too dramatic. Regular contemplation of death helps keep perspective and having Gratitude. Mindfulness keeps my attention on right things. Boredom and bystander issue is still there.

Traveled 72 days. Less than last few years 80-90 days but it’s due to our commitment to stay at home for the various kids exams.

Purpose 3 :Portfolio mgmt & Work role in Society

Goals: min 6% long term annual growth on net worth.  hit 100 startups for angel investment doing well as a portfolio. Quality volunteer in any such work I take up.

Portfolio Work

Portfolio YTD gains of 17%. Tracking the 6+% annualized since 2011. Big mistake on baidu + overallocation to value funds + 1H delevering so took some money off a little early. Big wins on sea, fb, alibaba and shinvest help us to at least match index.

Still in progress to switch to even more etf index investing. Can’t significantly beat index so might as well don’t try. We also want to be more disciplined in giving. Will have more discussion with Ning on this. 

Startup Work 

Angel side very active. I think because we now see so many deals, we actually hit our upper limit and did 6 new investments. Also had 3 big up rounds from previous startups. Almost all grew by revenue. 30 startups now. Thats 30% of the way to the 100 startup goal. Portfolio doing well  if mark to market.

AngelCentral side ramp up a lot. 130 paying members and we ran angel education workshops for easily 200+ more. Also spent lots of time vetting and meeting the 700 startups that register with us.

Volunteer Work

Still volunteering with ITE, PEP, SWCDC. This year a bit less time due to AngelCentral but the education related projects are still very meaningful to me. Of note, spent 4-5 sessions on an  ITE project. It is a highlight as it involved helping plan continuous education pathways which is something I firmly believe in. 

So for next year, should be continuation of the same and reminder to self to focus on 

Purpose, Fun, Balance & Gratitude.

How Should Angels Think About WeWork?

There has a recent spurt of bad news coming out of startup world this year. Readers will know Ning & I are conservative angel investors - is there such a thing? We take calculated risk in angel and VC investing and worst case, are prepared to write off our money. Of course,  we are obviously doing it because we like the activity and believe we can generate returns worth our time.

Lets do a recap just for this years news alone. Locally we have :

- Honestbee on brink of bankruptcy.
- Carousell taking a less than ideal round with OLX
- Rotimatic losing $1 for every $1 they sell.
- Propertyguru shelving IPO due to poor valuation offered by retail investors

I also buy the ACRA reports of many startups at Series A and B and they are inevitably all loss making. And to make things worse, the losses are not narrowing but sometimes expanding faster than revenue!

On a global basis

- Wework failed IPO and subsequent writedown/bailout by Softbank
- Uber & Lyft poor post IPO performance
- Grubhub stock tanking 40+% in 1 day due to poor earnings guidance

So how do we read all this? Especially as an angel investor? Does this mean we should just stop investing? Wait & See? Every angel needs to make up their own mind. For us, these are some of our thoughts:

First the good, positive stuff.

1) The fact that Carousell & Honestbee can raise so much with such bad revenues and/or unit economics is actually a sign that the ASEAN ecosystem is really strong with liquidity and interest. It is also the reason why SEA has decided to go all in for Shoppee so as to really stake their claim as a major ecommerce player in the region.

So ecosystem is growing and doing well. Liquidity is there as we see more and more VC funds raise and so will deploy capital next 3-5 years. And this is across all stages. At AngelCentral, which is an angel investing club, we have seen amount funded for our pitches grow at least 50% YonY.

2) Market growth is real. ASEAN really is a strong demographic play. GDP growth is strong in Indo, Vietnam, PH etc and this growth will accrue to tech related plays.  Just see how fast revenues have grown in Shoppee or Grab or Gojek.

Now the not so good stuff.

3) However, because of (1), many founders have decided to go for revenue or even just metrics without the cost discipline and patience to grow revenue and cost in tandem. This has led to massively loss making entities who all claim that their ultimate market size will justify the losses. In industry speak, we hear founders talk about their unit economics and the LTV of each customer.  This all makes sense provided capital is sufficiently patient and that the unit economics assumptions are real and market growth assumptions are accurate. Unfortunately, asssumptions are often wrong and unit economics or market size sometimes does not bear out.  When this happens, valuations have to come down dramatically.

Eg. I suspect this will happen for all the coworking spaces. None of them have succeeded beyond being a property play with some ancillary services added on. This makes them a 1-3 times revenue multiple play which is exactly how softbank values wework now. Thats a 50-90% valuation haircut.

Will this play out in more verticals? Unfortunately the answer is yes. With softbank licking its wounds, IPO market rejecting expensive listings, the froth has been blown off somewhat.

4) So there will be more bad exits or failures coming. Where will they come from? My bet will be on those low gross margin or pure traffic plays. B2C and with loads of cost and who have raised loads of VC money. The pressure will be intense to deliver on actual revenues next 1-2 years and profits thereafter. Quite a few names come to mind but i will reserve my judgement and see what happens.

So what should angels do?

Personally, we are sticking to our investing thesis. Remember VC/Angel investing should be just 5-20% of your total portfolio. So you probably made that same 10%-20%  in public equities and bonds last 5 years. So it must be money you can lose. We cannot stress this enough.

Next, we invest base on the founders skills and ambition, business model, product and market sizing. We invest systematically on a portfolio approach with discipline.  We want our companies to become profitable with superior unit economies and branding. Then they have the luxury to decide to trade sale or IPO. We do not want to invest just because an area is hot or if there is a high valuation ascribed to the vertical overseas or if a famous VC is investing. That is called investing blindly and greedily.  You need luck to behave that way and do well.

And if the shit really hits the fan on the ecosystem, i would argue it will be the best time to fund great founders who make it work even without much funding. Talent also becomes easier to find and of course, round  valuations will adjust downwards to compensate for risk and capital scarcity.

What should startups do?

To me, founders should take a long hard look at just what your unit economics are. And have a plan if funding is less or dries up. Because I can tell you having gone through SARS in 2003 and GFC in 2008, operating a startup without any outside money requires a mindset and hunger and obsession that is very absent in many founders mindset today.

Capital efficiency should be your buzzword. So many local Series A//B b2c startups need to spend 5,10,15,20m over 5 years just to make 1-3m of gross profit. In lean times, this is a ridiculous sum and implies a lot of wasted dead ends and maybe just plain waste! It may take a few years longer but I suspect often it is possible to spend much less and achieve same results.

In Summary

We don't think things are so bad right now like back in 2008. In fact it is nowhere near. Our assessment is that the pendulum has merely swung back to more normal state and there is still much interest and liquidity. Of course, if the rest of economy swings into recession and more failures like wework appear, then all bets are off. But we do believe sticking to consistent disciplined investing will work through both good and bad times.

NB : if you are keen to learn and hear our sharing as rather prolific angel investors, come attend our next workshop for Angel Investors.

How should Angels behave?

After interacting with numerous VCs, Angels and Founders, i realize that while there has been much improvement in the quality of our founders and some improvement in the VC quality, there is much lesser improvement in the Angel scene.  That is one of the reasons why we started AngelCentral.co - to build a community of competent and effective angels in ASEAN. So here is a list of key things Angels should do both pre and post deal. Actually many of the points apply to early stage VCs too.

1) Respect the founders!

Remember that the real stars of the show are the founders. Bearing this in mind helps with many decisions and where in doubt defer to the founders who are taking the most risk and pain. So any behaviour that is contrary to this is a big no no.

Eg. i have attended angel pitches where angels are eating dinner and not taking founders seriously during pitches. Or angels that badger founders over every small detail to the extent the angel is causing the founder stress. 

A good angel supports the founders as their earliest cheer leader. We help with thoughtful experience sharing, sometimes emotional burst outlet and can be a sounding board for the founders until they scale the business and raise professional money. 

2) Keep terms simple

Some angels try to add too many terms. Here are some i have seen :

a) Tranches. Some angels try to mitigate their risk by investing half first and half later upon certain milestones. While this is fine in principle, it would be easier to invest half now and have a pro rata right to invest next round. That frees the founders up to choose best investors and also frees your capital up too. We too, have been guilty of this in our earliest deals but have stopped since then. 

b) Board seats.  Don't insist on board seats unless you add good value and the founders want you.  I have heard of at least 2 good founders with successful companies that have to spend time and energy to kick out their earliest investor who has a board seat. What a waste of effort.

If the concern is on keeping up to date about the company, ask for information rights for the first few rounds. Information rights allow you to keep track of the company and so you can make better decisions subsequent rounds.

c) Nitpicking on agreements

We are not lead investors, we are angels who follow rounds or who do the earliest rounds. As such a simple preferred share structure or convertible note with cap will do.

What you do need to ask for as an Angel is pro-rata rights and information rights. The former so that you can continue to invest in successful startups as it is core to a successful angel portfolio that you maintain ownership as much as possible in winners. The latter so that you can value add with sharing, network and so that you can track how the startup is doing. This is critical and as an Angel you need the founders to agree to give you these terms for at least the next 1 or 2 rounds. Walk away from deals and VC leads that don't offer this. 

3) Be quick 

One of the key advantages of  Angels is that we move fast. A rule of thumb should be to make soft commits (agreeing to an investment pending lead investor and min capital raised) within 1-4 weeks of listening to pitch and receiving information. Most angels do this well. Also be quick to sign subscription and shareholder agreements. In terms of wiring money, do so once lead has done so.  No need to be the first here just in case lead investor pulls a fast one. 

Its the post investment phase that is less ideal. Post investment, you will need to sign resolutions, AGMs, exemptions etc. Please take this seriously and sign them promptly once you are satisfied the content is fine. Do not be an obstacle and make decisions on corporate actions quickly. 

4) Be useful

This is understand but its not easy to do well. We have over 20+ startup investments and i have found that the best way to be useful is to highlight from experience. Eg. many b2c startups severely underestimate the challenge of overseas expansion. They usually aim for 3-4 countries using Series A funds. Our JobsCentral and portfolio experience has been that its better to expand to just 1 more country first and base country mgmt depth better be strong!

Another area to value add can be in terms of network. Potential clients are best. Followed by potential investors. But make sure the contact is the right one! Don't try to be useful but end up wasting founder time.

Strategic or functional value is also good. We have shared in depth on topics like How to use Culture in Workplace, Sales Team management and metrics, Joint Venture overseas etc. All these help your founders learn faster and execute better!

5) Have right expectations!

Depending on the value of the angel, it is reasonable to expect that after the initial startup phase and once the startup has grown and raised more capital, angels play a much less important role. So unless you can continue to value add significantly in terms of network, capital or experience, it is reasonable to expect to be less engaged as time goes by. For myself and Ning, we know we are valuable knowledge/experience wise for startups up to maybe 10M gross profit and with about 100-200 headcount. Capital wise, we are usually following up to Series A round. Once beyond that, we are happy if the founders find time to meet us once a year just as friends, some updates and of course, we hope for the big exit when the startup finally has a liquidity event. Then actually, we may become useful again if the founders want to become investors! 

Of course, some of you may be strategic angels who run huge family businesses. In this case, you just need to have founders value you accordingly. Its either capital, network or knowhow. Show your value and insist on the rights that should be accorded to your value.

If you  like what you read, please visit http://www.angelcentral.co to sign up as an Angel today!

Entreprenuers Need to Keep Learning too!

This is an article i wrote for the CFE which was published on Channelnewsasia. Below is the unedited version.

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A key thing that I discovered through my personal experiences and from my fellow entrepreneurs is that entrepreneurship is a learning journey, and many successful business owners embrace continuous learning as a way of life.

The founding team and I built JobsCentral, over 14 years from 2001 to 2014, into a leading regional job portal generating multi-million dollar profits and employing 150 full time staff. During this period, I had evolved from a hands-on, multi-tasking founder into a strategic and metric-focused CEO. I was also privileged to have made friends with many fellow entrepreneurs through organisations like Entrepreneurs Organization and ACE.

I strongly believe that having a positive attitude towards lifelong learning, coupled with a long-term, obsessive focus on business are attributes that separates successful entrepreneurs from the rest.

LEARNING BY DOING

The most apparent way to learn is to ‘learn by doing’. Many entrepreneurs picked up skills to build, to market and to sell a great product via on-the-job lessons every day. We all make mistakes. But we always try to iterate and improve for the next round. This can be applied beyond business to many areas such as people and self-management.

When we first started JobsCentral, staff were managed with an iron fist and the management team ended up micro managing. This resulted in our first sales team leaving the company en masse. From that painful experience, we learned to manage by focusing on clear objectives and balancing between micro-managing and giving autonomy to the staff.

This incident also gave us an opportunity to learn how to better manage ourselves. Some introspection is required to prevent us from repeating the same mistakes. However, many entrepreneurs with large egos find it hard to admit to their wrongdoings.

What we found important is for business owners not take criticism personally and to always refer to metrics to develop solutions.  For example, during the ‘group buying’ craze, we were sure that a ‘pay-per-course sign up model’ a.k.a. the ‘Groupon model’ would be very scalable. But after 6 months, indicators such as sales figures and usage metrics highlighted that traditional direct advertising models were more effective. In this situation, we admitted our mistake openly and switched our tack.

LEARNING FROM COMPETITORS, PEERS, EMPLOYEES

For entrepreneurs, on-the-job training and learning from mistakes will naturally be the longest and most painful way to learn. A faster and more effective way would be to learn from competitors, experienced hires and fellow entrepreneurs.

Many mistakes could have been avoided if there had been upfront consultation with or reference to books by people who have been there and done that.

The Information and Communications Technology (ICT) ecosystem is a great example  where knowledge gets spread rapidly via sharing sessions, media and online communication tools. I remember hosting visits for internet-based companies which wanted to understand how JobsCentral had built its strong consumer brand. Learning from our experiences helped these entrepreneurs build confidence and certainty in their marketing plans. Likewise, JobsCentral was able to negotiate a fair sale deal back in 2011, after seeking feedback from experienced entrepreneurs who had bought and sold businesses..

This sharing is not even across other sectors. Singaporean firms typically refrain from sharing information. While there is intense competition and secrecy among companies in the same sectors, there is nothing stopping entrepreneurs from sharing openly with non-competitive peers and helping each other grow.

I have personally found great satisfaction in playing a small role in helping fellow entrepreneurs build their businesses. Also, as Singaporean entrepreneurs, we must recognise that we need to operate on a regional and global stage to grow. So while we compete among ourselves domestically, we need to be mindful that we are also going up against overseas players.  It would be fantastic if we had open platforms for sharing and learning within our business community, to uplift the industries here – for instance, through our Trade Associations.

TRANSFORMATIONAL LEARNING

If we are able to learn from our mistakes, as well as the knowledge and experiences of fellow entrepreneurs, chances are that we will build a strong business.  However, to truly build a great business, more needs to be done.

For example, entrepreneurs need to understand and appreciate industry-specific processes and know-how, to be able to envision the future and achieve their goals. Our last 2 years in CareerBuilder was about transforming a global job portal into a HR Software-As-A-Service (SAAS) business.  Our management in the USA was able to observe next generation software companies like SalesForce and Zendesk and realised we would be better off in the long-term if we establish the direction to transform our company into a HR SAAS player. This insight was synthesized from studying SAAS trends and coupling that with in-house knowledge and current strengths in market positioning.

EVERYONE LEARNS DIFFERENTLY 

Each entrepreneur needs to find the most effective way to learn. I learn best by reading widely and talking to fellow entrepreneurs. The latter approach requires putting in effort to network and get to know people.  Organisations like Entrepreneurs’ Organization (EO), Young Presidents’ Organization (YPO), Business Leaders Alumni Club (BLAC), and Action Community for Entrepreneurship (ACE) are great platforms to support this. It does take some experience to figure out who and what to ask. 

Another effective way of learning for me is to read business/economy-centric newspapers, quality business cases and books written by successful entrepreneurs or functional experts. Besides acquiring information from these publications, entreprenuers need to also adopt a habit of self-reflection to apply our learning to ourselves and our businesses.

As entrepreneurs, we are always asking our employees to keep learning  and to improve themselves. Lets  also  walk the talk and take some time to reflect and embrace continuous entrepreneurial learning, too. This means reflecting on our mistakes, learning from peers, understanding our industry and having an curiosity about the world. There is always something new to learn!

Year end update : So how is semi retirement after 2.5 years?

This is a slightly indulgent article. Not much to do with entrepreneurship or startups, so bear with me or just skip this entry! It will be relevant if you are thinking of purpose in life or if you have recently retired. I am writing because I do get a lot of curious comments from all walks of life when they hear that i sort of retired at 38+.

Its been slightly more than 2.5 years since I stopped full time work. Last update was done 1 year into retirement. Many people assume retirement when young is all fun and games but actually having no structure in life and no over riding purpose can be difficult. I can be both busy and restless, bored at same time.

Quick summary of what happened since official no work status to give context since June 2014 :

1) Mum passed away in oct 2014 after a brief but painful 4 mth battle with lung cancer.

2) Baby #4 came along in June 2014 and he is so precious and cute.

3) 2 older kids entered teenagehood and secondary school. 3rd one entered primary.

4) Started a business Doctor Wealth using chairman model which failed due to mgmt issues and had to be given a new lease of life via some corporate development work.

5) Between Ning and me, we invested in 8 more private startups (iMoney, metro residences, Worq, aldoktor are public knowledge) and 5 VC in the region.

6) Volunteered for the Committee of the Future Economy, ACE and 2 other govt boards. Started ACE peer sharing groups for startup founders which has helped over 35 startups.

7) Launched a crowdfunding platform for Swcdc. Mixed success in terms of scaling up but still running. So far projects have raised some 40-50k in total.

8) Got healthy. 6 day a week Yoga, weights and jogging routine. Traveled a fair bit but no where near what I would like to or to the places I want to. About 60-70days a year.

9) Built an entire balanced type portfolio over the years and implemented decision making, tracking and benchmarking processes. Met target of beating private bank discretionary portfolios and index benchmark.

10) Created and trained singapores first angel Investing workshop in 2016. So far only 25 pax trained but will do more next year.

I lead what I call a balanced portfolio life nowadays. The logic behind it is that while obsessive and crazy focus is needed to achieve first success in business, it is not exactly great for ones spiritual, mental or physical health. It also frequently leaves family members and loved ones shortchanged of attention and love.

So nowadays I spend around 20% of time on exercise and leisure stuff (reading, tv, gaming etc), 20% on volunteer work, 30% on family activities, 20% on portfolio and finances and last 10% on angel investing related. Each of these activities have specific goals linked to a purpose or reason for why I do them.

Eg. Portfolio is to return min 5% annualized with fund mgmt standard vol and sharpe ratios. Angel and volunteer is to impact fellow entrepreneurs and build a culture of entrepreneurship in sg in my own small way.

Some key observations:

Personal related

-------------------

1) Losing a parent is very painful. I think of my mum every few days and it truly is a permanent gap in my heart. So if you are lucky enough to have both parents around still. The best sharing I can give is to spend as much time doing stuff with them as possible. 

2) Kids grow up real fast and are loads of fun. Have more of them if you can afford it in terms of time, attention and resources. We have 4 children and without a full time work focus, children, wife and rest of family are the main purpose that drives me.

3) Being present and aware of life as it happens is very fulfilling. In business, we are always projecting into the future. Now I try to focus on the present. Really listen and look at what is before me. A side effect is that I notice more about people and I hope in time to be the sort of person people like having around. Not to get their approval but because life is more fun when others are comfortable around you and share their stories! Being aware also means we become more understanding of others and that most people are just trying. So patience gets developed a bit more.

4) Learning still matters perhaps more so than ever. Since learning new stuff is the reward once payment is taken out of the equation. The other driver is being useful which I cover below. Big stuff I learned about include portfolio thinking, board roles, angel investing and about myself and people in general.

5) Undergone some major personality and health change. Both are connected. I am far less competitive though I can still be triggered to the old mode if I suddenly meet a whole bunch of alpha super successful males. How I overcome this is to remind myself that in the end it's all the same. See learning (1). So if I am lucky enough to get out of the competition while relatively young, why continue? For recognition? For the net worth scoreline? To buy more stuff? This diminished desire to win others coupled with a lot of exercise and nutritious food has resulted in a  healthier me. Sleep much better and smile more and feel more at peace.

Work & Portfolio  related

-----------------------------

1) Being useful works. This is my criteria for doing the volunteer and angel work. I try to do stuff that plays to my strengths. But I must admit it is hard to be satisfyingly  useful when one is only occupying an investor or board member role since they are not operational.. My philosophy is that  I say exactly what I think that could be constructive to listener . And those who want to hear more, I am always happy to help further. In terms of being paid, it is strange to suddenly not get paid for all the work I do. But I try to see it as giving back. 

2) Being open is something new I am trying. . Last year I was laser focused on angel and startup work. This year I tried being open to anything. It's a work in progress as all the knowledge and skills I have are tech and startup related. So people tend to pigeonhole me there. But joining some government boards and committees has been intellectually interesting and makes me feel I am doing something useful. Though I must say I am not used to the much more slower pace compared to startups due to the size of the issues and organizations we deal with. I am also hoping to go beyond all this corporate and business type areas. 

3) Portfolio mgmt.   It is a full time thing to do it well. Need to research a lot which fits me since I like to read and pay attention to numbers.. Attitude and psychology matters a lot. Attitude meaning we need to admit we are rookies and so have to learn almost everything from scratch. So far so good and I like the stretch and challenge as the thinking is almost opposite from what an "all-in" first time  entrepreneur needs to do. There is also a lot of tracking involved to know how I am doing.  Honestly, I think few entrepreneurs should do this activity diy  as the traits needed are quite at odds with what make them succeed.

4) Startup investing via angel and Vc investing is quite fun. I learned a lot in terms of how to assess, how to handle post investment and am now waiting to see if all the effort will pay off. Unlike stocks and bonds, this activity is more long term. But I am optimistic it will do the best. This activity is most fun as I also contribute a little in helping the startup in terms of mentality and strategy. The best sort of work is one where you put in time and money and it all works out! I think this is a must do for most entrepreners who have made enough money.

Next year, my goal is to continue what I now do and be open to what life will bring. It may mean full time work in the form of starting a new business, it may not. But I want to make sure I continue adding value to people and organizations around me and also be present for all my loved ones!

My main learning point from Mr Lee Kuan Yew

I feel much sadder than I thought I would at the demise of Singapore's founding father Mr Lee Kuan Yew. I must have shed tears at least 5-6 times in the last few days as I read his speeches and see his life pictures. Not the type of tears one sheds for a loved family member, but tears shed because his was a life worth living and I feel a great sadness that such a well lived meaningful life has to end just like any other life. And as I reflect on what Mr Lee Kuan Yew represents to me, I realize what I learn most from him is that it is possible to dedicate an entire life to a single greater purpose and have no regrets at the end of it.

Mr Lee Kuan Yew was clearly extremely intelligent and eloquent. He also was a natural leader, knowing when to play nice and when to be tough. But there are many other people in the world who are extremely intelligent and who are strong leaders. It is a genetic lottery and there is not much to respect or learn from that. Mr Lee himself believes that over 70% of a person's ability is determined at birth. I totally agree.

What sets aside Mr Lee is his amazing strength of will and alignment of his entire life to the idea of a strong Singapore. The closest approximation to this I have experienced is the way a good entrepreneur sacrifices and obsesses over their business. But we entrepreneurs do this because we own the company and so we tap into our base human nature to love what we possess to drive our obsession.  But Mr Lee is too smart to not know that he does not truly own Singapore but still he consistently chose to subordinate his life towards what he felt was best for Singapore.

And reading all his books and looking at his home and pictures, I can honestly say I don't believe he did it for any monetary reward or creature comfort. His sense of purpose and benchmark for personal achievement is the Singapore story. That explains his now famous quote about giving up his life for Singapore. He had so many chances to take it easy but he never did it. It could be because he has aligned himself so much, he cannot let go even if he wanted to!

So it all boils down to this. That this super intelligent, thoughtful, eloquent, happily married individual can at the end of his life, reflect and say that his life of conviction and service to Singapore is a life worth living and which he has no regrets. This is very unique viewpoint as most people at the end of their lives don't reflect on business or politics but instead wish they travelled more or spent more time with family.

Mr Lee Kuan Yew has shown another path for those who seek purpose in life. It tells me that it is possible for a highly talented man to devote his entire life and talents to a greater non monetary good and be engaged throughout with it as it grows and evolves. And at the end of that life, have no or little regrets.

So how is early retirement at 38?

This is a rather personal post and I need to qualify that all I am writing is from the perspective of someone who has just stopped working for 7 months after 14 years of entrepreneurship. I may feel very differently if it is after 2 years.

And the reason i am sharing is that many people i meet seem to have a glorified ideal of semi/retirement. Also, i realize many entrepreneurs and working professionals seek financial freedom as a key goal in working life. So i want to share how it has been so far and hopefully it will help fellow entrepreneurs get another perspective of life after exit. This will help them in decision making and planning.

Some background is that I have 4 kids, aged 12, 11, 6 and 0.5. I have about 3 key takeaways so far :

1) It is possible to stay reasonably busy but feel less fulfilled.

My days are quite busy. About 50-60% of time on kids and family stuff, 20% on various work items (portfolio mgmt., meeting potential companies for angel investment, volunteer work with SWCDC and ACE etc), 10% on exercise and remainder on leisure activities ( I managed to catch up Walking Dead and 100!). On average, i have 2-3 meetings weekly with potential investee companies or with currently invested companies or for volunteer related work.

After these last 7 months, I feel all this is less fulfilling when combined compared to running a full time business on top of them. Two key differences. First is that I am far less busy and everything is more touch and go rather than digging in and being intimately involved. There is no bone for my mind to chew on daily. Portfolio management has sort of replaced this since i can obsessively track gains and losses and there is an endless amount of analysis to read and learn. But it is not as fun. Second, there is a lack of buzz or excitement that comes from working with a regular team and aiming for a common goal. I used to work in an office with 100 people and interact with at least 10-20 daily. Now it is much lesser and we are frequently not on the same team.

What I do enjoy is working with startups whether as an investor, director or just sharing experiences over coffee with driven coachable entrepreneurs. Currently, I spend most time and effort on DrWealth which has just raised a S$800K seed round and things are getting exciting there. I have also formed regular forums under ACE to help tech startups learn from each other.

2) More time = healthier physically and mentally.

This is a big one for me and is one of two reason why I am not rushing back into business. While running the business, I was perpetually stressed out both mentally and physically. I had a permanent stress cough, bad sinus problems and had difficulty switching off at night. So much so, I would think of financials even while in the toilet! All that changed in the last 7 months. I sleep much better, have spent enough time in the gym, have fallen sick only 2-3 times (used to be almost monthly or bimonthly) and find myself more patient with people. In fact, my cholesterol level has dropped by almost 40 points into normal range despite little change in diet.

3) More time = Present for Loved Ones & People

The second reason I am not rushing back is that having time for my kids and loved ones is fantastic. Throughout my last 14 years of work, I have always tried to spend time weekly with my parents, have daily dinners with kids and generally be there as they grow up. But truth be told, I was obsessed with the business and competing much of the time even while I was with them. Now I find that I am far more present for them. I know and feel alongside their first day of school, their first taste of porridge, and even first PSLE! And this being present extends to friends and people I meet. I find myself far more patient and willing to listen and see things from their point of view. This is great because it helps me control my competitive nature and I believe makes me a nicer person.

So there you have it. Three key changes that happened to me. Will I plunge back into the fray with another startup? Maybe. As usual, it is a matter of right team, right idea and right timing. And it may not be an internet business. Will it be this year? I am letting things happen and will go along with it as events develop. My second kid has PSLE this year, my youngest is very cute (to me) at just 6 months and I have not even done much traveling due to recent family events and the new baby.

6 Personal Sharing on Angel Investing

(Updated 16 December 2016)
This article shares the mindset I have as an investor. It does not represent what other investors think and all opinions are just one sample. So read it in the right light.

Since 2009, my wife & I have been angel investing in the area of internet businesses where we have some experience. The idea is both to give back what we learned and also to hopefully profit from it.

To date, we have invested in 14 startups SG/regionally and we will probably invest in another 5-10 startups over the next 3-4 years or about 2-3 a year max. In addition, we have invested/committed in 5 incubator/Series A funds as part of our diversification/lead gen strategy.

Here are some learning points we have :

1) Invest in things we know and enjoy.

All the companies we have invested in are B2C companies with the exception of one which is a digital animation firm. Reason? Our experience building up a job portal allows us to share meaningfully with the portfolio companies. In fact, two of the portfolio companies are job portals outside of SG.

Recently, we have decided that Fintech B2C is an area which is ripe and which I have a personal interest. So we started researching the startups in the space and have met with quite a few. In the end, we decided to invest in two - iMoney and DrWealth. One has done pretty well.

Investing in B2C businesses allow us to gauge whether the management team is doing a good job or not and allows to learn even more about B2C mechanics which makes us even more valuable mentors. Being able to value add to the entrepreneur is a big positive feeling for me.

2) Invest with early stage VC for diversification. Double your bet alongside for stories you like.

One way that we are still trying out is to invest in incubators and early stage funds. Then for the stories we like and which are book building, we can invest alongside them. That is also why we invested in 500startups/durians.

3)  Always invest in the person and the rough model. Motivation matters a lot!

We want to invest in people who don't give up easily. Business models are rarely correct at startup stage. Management will need to tweak and pivot and go through a lot of pain before they hit on the right model (if ever). As investors, the last thing you want is a founder that gives up within 1+ years of funding esp if money still not run out. For me, I would be ok if the business fails if the founder has pivoted at least 2 times and has spent at least 2 years trying to make things work and has been willing to put more of personal money in to keep things going,

From what I have observed, the best key founders are those that just want to get things done. They have a just do it attitude and will never blame others for their failure. Frequently, they are not afraid to roll up their sleeves and do sales or marketing work. Their ego is subordinated to the business goal which they are crystal clear about. 

4) Coachable founders are critical and I don't need to be the coach

Related to point 4. Some people learn fast (whether from others, actual experiences or even from books), some don't. A team that does not learn or which is slow to change when change is clearly needed will rarely succeed. I now always look out for founders who are willing to listen and absorb new practises and who are willing to agree when numbers tell that they are wrong. They don't need to listen to me, but they need to listen to someone!

5) Invest money that is not needed and with discipline.

I cannot stress this enough.  We plan ahead 4-5 years and use a portfolio allocation strategy that limits how much we can allocate (not more than 15%)  into startups and VC/incubator funds.  We understand that in worst case, we will lose all of it though I would not except the VC funds to lose it all!

6) Invest as a way to give back to ecosystem

This one is for all those who managed to exit your business or who have down wel in corporate job. We all know Singapore does not have many of us. So putting aside 5,10,20% to invest back in the area you know well is a good win win. Life can't be just about making more money, more fun for ourselves and helping only our loved ones. Doing some mentoring and coaching for companies you are vested in and which you are knowledgeable about is a great way to give back and still be aligned.

Open Letter to all colleagues and alumni of JobsCentral

Today is my last day at work. I want to thank everybody for helping to build JobsCentral to where it is today. Over 14 years, we have grown from a 2 man startup into one of the largest regional job portals with over 150 staff in SG, MY and ID. We grew revenue and profit each year for 14 years running. Not many companies can achieve that.

Each of you have played a part in making this happen and I want to thank each of you for that effort and heart put in. It's always a team effort to make things happen.

I hope everyone continues to find alignment between what you want to do and achieve in life and what JC or your current employer is able to offer. Continue to stay true to our company values of honesty, teamwork, easy to do business and meritocracy. These are good values to have in any workplace. Keep striving to improve yourself as a person and professional. Have pride and set good standards for yourself. I hope to see everyone do spectacularly well in life. Don't settle for less.

Execution - Perception gap between investor and founders?

This article is triggered by recent exchanges i had where i realize that there is a gap in perception between founders and the investors who fund them. On one hand, i have the hardworking founder telling me that they dont think they executed badly and in fact executed well given the situation but from my point of view , they did not execute well. So who is right? After some reflection i realize both are right!

Founder point of view :

I have so much shit happening all the time. Traction takes longer to achieve. Staff are hard to hire and quit on me. Sales takes so much longer to happen and when it happens, clients buy less than projected.

And worst of all, market keeps evolving and changing!. So of course i cannot hit my projections. They are just projections. Surely the investors can see i am working crazy hours and obssessing about it all and trying my best!

Investor point of view :

You only execute well if you have achieved the metrics which you pitched and plan annually in terms of revenue, EDITDA, product development plan, marketing plan and HR hire plan. Anything less means execution could have been better.

Sounds harsh? Actually not really. After all the investment as made based on the premise founders will deliver. And don't forget i also need to make sure the investments realize a profit at the end.

Yes, i know startup is difficult. Marketing is hard. Hiring and retaining is hard so is growing revenues. So most investors discount what you pitch somewhat. But it does not mean we agree execution is good when founders fall short.

For me, i will only feel execution has been good if we meet all annual projected metrics and also feel the founder has the right attitude and mindset. Execution is great if we beat of course!

My comment?

Both sides are right. I do both right now and in the past. A little empathy and regular communication will go a long way. So the investor needs to express the worry they have that business not going to deliver on promised returns, founders need to agree they are not executing well and appreciate the other party's stress. And both sides meet. But who should do more in the communication department? I think the founder. Simply because you probably have more to lose and you own more of the company.

No simple solution right?

Startup Mistakes I made and Lessons Learned

This post is all about failures. I realize that some people prefer and maybe learn from other people's failures better than successes. I tend to prefer the latter as there are many ways to fail but fewer ways to succeed. So intuitively, it makes more sense to emulate and adopt successful behaviours and thoughts/mental models than to learn to avoid failed models and mindsets. But it is always instructive to see things from both sides i guess. Below are failures i have made in the past 14 years.

1) Failure to be transparent about cofounder committment & expectations

Problem : Did not initially spell out intentions and feeling about key topics like how to handle working shareholder departures. So when working shareholder decided to not to work full time, there was much difficulty in resolving feelings.

Result : Much stress and difficult conversations when trying to buy out minority shareholder. It took me some 1-2 months and much distraction to settle this issue. Also had to pay out a good 6 figure sum.

Takeaway - Always spell out various scenerios when contemplating a venture with  multiple shareholders. Make sure there is agreement. Don't fall into the temptation of taking the easy way to out and just glossing over difficult items like exit cases, valuation, roles etc. Then encapsulate it all in a written and signed shareholder agreement. If you cannot agree on tough points, it could mean your team has problems.

2) Failure to spearhead new venture & blind faith

Problem : Thought that it made perfect sense to venture out into a recruitment agency work back in the early days. Hired 1 manager & 3 pax and burnt through 40-50K of revenue in 3 months with little to show for it. Believed the manager that they can just start a new wing.

Result : Wasted mgmt focus on sideline and wasted  money pursuing it.

Takeaway - New ventures, even adjacent ones take longer than expected. Also in startups, new areas need to be spearheaded by top management. Seldom will an outside middle level hire be able to do it even if they seem to firmly believe it. Most middle (and some top) mgmt are used to having established brand and structure to help them, so they may actually believe they can start up something if only given the chance. Dont believe them and if you must believe them, still watch them like a hawk.

3) Failure to focus on sales & that Sales manager
Problem : A parallel of point (2) is believing that  hiring an experienced sales director/manager will help you settle sales while you focus on product. This is 99% pure bullshit. Founders must spearhear their own sales almost all of the time initially. I never fell prey to this but a portfolio company of mine has. They raised money, spent it on hiring sales team and sales mgmt then hands off!

Result : Total waste of money as the founder discovered that a hired sales mgmt will never be as dedicated to chasing down each lead, helping to get feedback and care as much as a founder. End result was 1 year wasted and damage so bad it may kill the company. Pain to me is also a possibly wasted 6 figure investment.

Takeaway - Always spearhead your own sales effort via a founder in the first few years. Not only will sell better but will also iterate product better since closer to client. You also squeeze the most out of your other sales hires since you are leading them. Did i mention investors also like sales driven founders?

4) Failure to plan for worst case.

Problem : When things are doing well, that is the best time to raise more money than you need. Another company i invested in had an opportunity to raise money that is equivalent to 2 years cash burn. Business was doing well and so there was also an option to not raise too but it required no mistakes and continued flawness execution. The founder chose not to raise.

Result : As usual, bad things happened and metrics did not grow as expected. Cash crunch started looming. Had to scramble to reverse the metrics. Work in progress.

Takeaway - Always do a worst case scenario and if in that scenerio, you dont need funding, then dont do it. Be paranoid!

Hope the above helps! Feel free to comment and add on.

Entrepreneurs - How to Manage That Windfall !

Entrepreneurs who have a liquidity event are often like lottery winners. They are not well equipped to know how to manage the money esp if they are not from a wealthy family and have always lived a more normal/middle class lifestyle. They can end up being too conservative or too risk taking and the worst part is that they may not even be aware of it. Entrepreneurs also have an added problem of usually having a big ego, always optimistic and wanting to make all the decisions ourselves. Good recipe for investment failure.

I am writing this article so share some learning experiences which i had over the years. Both from reading, own experience and from others. Please feel free to comment and add experiences.

1) Don't touch bulk of money for next 6-12 months

Say you suddenly now have X million in the bank after a trade sale. There is a further prospect of another Y million over the next 2-3 years. You feel rich and super liberated. At the same time, everyone seems to expect you to give back and to start showing the moolah.

I would suggest to just do nothing major with the money. Put 90% of it in FD or a few 6 mth super safe bond. Let yourself and your family get used to your new found wealth. By all means, go for nice $$$$ dinner, buy a cartier ring or hermes bag for your loved one. Or take a 5 star vacation with the family for once. But don't spend anything more than 1% max 2% of your new net worth on these extravagant purchases. For Singapore, it means don't go buy a sports car that costs $500K right away unless you have $25M or more.

Note i don't mean that we should not buy the sports car unless we have 25M or more. What i mean is that we should let the money sink in and let our brains adjust first. Then if 1-2 years later, you still think that 500K sports car or 100K luxury watch is worth buying, then go get it!

After 6-12 months is up, if you have been doing your homework below, you will have an idea how to invest or work it. Your sense of value will also have adjusted and you will be less prone to impulse buys or dumb financial decisions.

2) Admit you are not a financial planning expert. 

Entrepreneurs do well because we are experts in our own micro area. Whether it is software, internet, manufacturing, F&B etc. We need to admit we are not experts in the field of financial planning and portfolio management. So get a private banker(s) to help you.

Most private banks will let you open an account with min US$1M USD and especially if you show you have more to come or with other banks. Be discerning, there are private client solutions out there which is a sandwich tier between Priority Banking and Private Banking. Not so good because their fees tend to be higher. Go for the actual private banks and if possible get a referral so you start with a good relationship manager.

Apply your same determination to build your business to understanding the world of personal finance. Be patient and take the time to learn from others. For starters, learn indepth about the following terms :

Fixed income, equities, interest rates, private equity, hedge funds, portfolio allocation, rebalancing, yield, ROI, options, structured notes, dividends, commodities, gold, property, leverage, inflation.

3) Set Goals for the Money

Now that you have a lump sum, you need to decide what goals you have for it. Is it to preserve and grow this capital? Is it to take high  risks with it? This topic is frequently tied up to the actual number you require for financial freedom. For most living standards in SG, it is about S$3-5M range that will allow for retirement in your 40s to 50s. For people who live it up more, even $10M is not enough - skies the limit.

A good advice i got from a tech "qianbei" (older expert) is to build a stable property/bond/equity portfolio that generates cash flow that pays for all annual expenses. So if you spend $360K a year, then at 4% inflation adjusted real returns, this portfolio needs to be about S$9M excluding your residence. The extra money above this 9M can then be used for starting a new business or investing in startups etc.

One word about investing in startups. Be very careful and be prepared to lose all the money. A wise man told me before to spend not more than 10% of your net worth in such investments. Also, for this 10%, spread it out into 50K angel sizes and make sure you can invest in at least 10? Otherwise no diversification. If you can spare less than 500K, i think it makes more sense to be an LP with a venture fund.  I know readers may disagree on this. Feel free to comment and share.

4) Be aware of vastly higher mountains, maintain humility, give generously.

Don't let money change you. We are still the same people. We just have more responsibility since we are lucky enough to have exited our businesses. Continue to be useful to your family and people around, continue to learn and be generous. One method that has worked very well for me is to interact with people who are both a lot more successful and a lot less successful in terms of wealth or career. Listening to the both groups share their experiences and perspective and observing keeps me grounded.

We can't take our money with us. So give generously annually if you can. Many people lose out on the genetic/life lottery which you won. So give back to society and worthy causes in a sustainable way.

5) Spend within your means!

Be careful not to be seduced by the ever upward spiraling lifestyle which one segment of society espouses. If you are below 35 and have self-made millions, there is a tendency to think believe you can duplicate it again and be overconfident in your next venture or investments. There is also a possibility you may upgrade your lifestyle to beyond your income and wealth. Note, i am not advocating to be stingy, upgrade your lifestyle by all means just don't go above it. A good rule of thumb is that you should aim for total spending  <70% of total income per year.

You did not get to exit your business without brains, so apply it to model carefully what you can or cannot afford, use it to plan out your investment plans and act on it.

I hope the above 5 points help fellow fortunate entrepreneurs in terms of starting to think about what to do with  their new found wealth. Feel free to email me or add comments.

Entrepreneurs beware of DIY Investing!

I have  people who ask me this question. They think that because i started a business, sold it and because i make private investments that there is something special or unique about how i invest my assets. Let me be the first to say that the traits required to be a good investor are very different from those that entrepreneurs have. And i think i am still learning from the market and about myself all the time.

By default, entrepreneurs are high risk takers who control the risk by knowing everything there is to know about their business and industry. We deep dive into every aspect of our work so that we are able to control risk and maximize our returns. Even when our business has grown a lot, we continue to invest more into it and take further risk by going overseas or into adjacent markets. Frequently, the company we own is most of our net worth.

Furthermore, Entrepreneurs are also highly passionate people and you will hear many successful ones who advocate a combination of gut and metrics to make major decisions.

Good investors on the other hand, diversify. They minimize risk by not concentrating in one area and by proper portfolio allocation. And it is also humanly impossible for them to know with any depth any particular industry which they are invested in. They frequently outsource and use professional managers to help manage their money. Decisions are made based on numerical allocations and frequently a fixed methodology for deciding when to buy or sell. Investors who employ their gut tend not to do well. 

My personal experience is that the above descriptions are totally true and one can lose a fair sum of money if one does not understand the very different traits required. I lost close S$100K or 100% of portfolio during the 2000 dot com crash because i had over-concentrated my positions in technology stocks. Then more recently in 2010, i experimented with options without clear knowledge of how volatile they can be and lost another S$100K on these simply because i could not cut my losses and applied the dogged perseverance entrepreneurship trait to options!

From the above lessons, i learned that it is best for me and perhaps for entrepreneurs like me to stick to passive portfolio decisions and outsource the active selection decisions to good fund managers. 

What this means is that we should make the decision on how much to keep in cash, how much to invest in stocks, fixed income and properties. But when it comes to the actual stock or fixed income picks, either buy ETFs which mirror the market or buy a few different mutual funds. Use dollar cost averaging strategies if we get more cash and rebalance the portfolio periodically every 3 to 6 months. 

If the urge to take risk or to make decisions is too strong and if we have an interest in trading, then set aside a small percentage of assets - say 5% to make speculative trades on equities, options or bonds. The above philosophy has worked well for me and i hope it will work readers too. 

How to think about Revenues and Costs in a startup

Over the years, i have been both running internet business and investing in internet businesses. In both cases, management will always have a profit and loss projection for the year. I have seen enough internet P&Ls and tracked enough such P&Ls that i have come to some conclusions for our region. Here are 2 major  :

1) Revenue projections are almost always optimistic.

I have must seen and helped or tracked more than 100 internet businesses by now based in SG and MY. Of these, only a handful have revenue projections that are largely achieved. And these are usually achieved due to market conditions being extremely favourable. A good example is Groupon SG and MY which rode the adoption of ecommerce in a big way. Or job portals and property portals which rode the economic growth and property market growth. Of course execution matters equally too. Usually companies that achieve their projections are those who executed very well on a day to day sales and operations basis and which are also aided by market trends which added wind to their sails.

What about the rest? Most of the other startups fall short of their projections. A common mistake is to assume a certain conversion rate for platform plays without taking into account that as one scales up, the conversion rates could change for the worse. For sales team plays, a common mistake is to assume scalability of sales staff without taking into account the fact that it takes time to train up a sales staff and that attrition for corporate sales startups is pretty high. Also sales management is not something easy to get right from the start.

Another common mistake is to assume revenue from new markets based on old market assumptions. I have seen many business plans where SG makes X revenue and the assumption is to grow MY and ID at the same pace as SG. This is quite dangerous. Many reasons. One is that core team that made it work is still in SG and not the new country. Another reason is that SG core assumptions are significantly different from new market. Another close parallel of this is assuming in your projection that you can sell a complementary  product as easily as your core. For example, an ecommerce company thinking that it can branch out and sell to the same clients advertising media.

2) Costs are usually at projections or worse above projections.

On the other side of the income statement, most startups manage to spend what they say they will spend. Unfortunately, when coupled with (1), this means many startups fail to hit their EBITDA goals. While not damning if they are growing fast enough, some startups do get caught and run out of cash.

Implications of the above 2 observations.

If the above 2 are usually correct, then it means that startups should always have a ultra conservative plan which requires them to project revenue at the worst case scenario and then spend at the worst case scenario. And be reactive enough so that if revenue comes in as expected, then ramp up the cost to match it. But never let cost ramp up in anticipation of revenue.

Now i know some people will say that is extremely conservative and startups that practise what i just suggested probably cant scale up super fast. Also, some people may also wonder how such a startup will get funded. I have 2 answers for this.

First, use your average to optimistic scenario for fund raising but use your conservative one once you get funding. This will solve your funding valuation issue and investors usually dont mind if the entrepreneur is more careful with their money.

Second, it really depends on market adoption or revenue growth. If market are growing like crazy (read over 100% per year), then yes, by all means ramp up the costs. But if market is still those that require you to educate clients (like job portals during the 2000-2003 days)... then perhaps it makes sense to pace costs to revenues.

Feel free to comment!

Patrick Grove's Empire.

Kudos to Patrick Grove again. He is truly a strong deal maker. For readers who do not know Patrick's background. I will cover the iBuy and Dealguru thoughts in another post. But first...

Patrick was from the first dot com boom and started this general portal called Catcha which was meant to be like Yahoo for SEA. They raised money and were all geared up for IPO. But market crashed in April 2000 and they missed the window. What happened next is quite a tough period as Patrick and partners bought out their investors and pivoted the business into an English magazine publisher based in KL. They grew that until some in 2007 or 2008 when he went back into the dot com area with his purchase of iProperty in malaysia and at the same time pushing the malaysian Catcha Media into becoming a reseller for MSN and other digital media properties.

What happened next is what i admire him for.

He somehow managed to string together a bunch of in principle aquisitions and concurrently IPO on ASX the iproperty group. Between 2008 to 2013, the company used Other Peoples Money from IPO, European investors and rights issues to expand regionally with mixed results. iProperty is super successful in Malaysia but has lost out to Propertyguru in SG. Current market valuation is A$355M or about S$400M. iProperty sales is at A$15M last 12 mths with a loss of 1.5M or so. Mostly winning in MY market.

He is a significant shareholder via Catcha Group which owns about 23% of iProperty. He is majority shareholder of Catcha group. So what he did is to structure the initial deal, build up a team of good executives from REA group (top Australian portal) and then get the business to work in this region. 1.5M loss is not a big deal if iProperty can continue to grow and scale. And their losses are reducing. So to outside investors, he has proven his ability to deliver to shareholders so far.

Also to note, this market valuation i am sure has helped Propertyguru get the price they wanted for their deal.  So it is not always a bad thing that your competitors get good deals!

The next thing he did was to list the malaysia Catcha Media at a RM100M valuation. Much lower valuation since the market is KL and also magazine publishing is less sexy. In testament to his deal power, he has recently merged it with Says.com and has gotten the Says guys to try to grow this business well in MY. But i think the lesson is that KL investors value  dot coms a lot less than in Australia. I believe investors right now are still valuing Catcha Media below IPO price.

The next deal he did was last year when he entered the car market but IPO yet another low revenue and profitless firm on ASX leveraging on his success with iProperty. iCarAsia is currently doing what iproperty did 5-6 years ago and trying to build up car portals in SEA. Market cap of A$71M on barely annualized 1.5M revenue!!!! 

Whether iCarAsia can become another iProperty really depends on execution next few years. Will be interesting to watch.

So what he has effectively done is to seed fund privately and do his series A, B,C via the stock market. The ability to IPO at Series A/B round is where his magic is.

Most recently, he created a new company to enter ecommerce space via acquiring key deal sites in 3 countries. Will talk about iBuy in another post.

When to give up

I had a rather disturbing tea session with a passionate startup entrepreneur 1+ months ago. We chatted for about 2 hours and it was revealed that he has basically thrown in everything he has but the kitchen sink in terms of his personal resources and energy. The business has pivoted 2 times and he is hoping that 3rd time lucky this dec. Basically has enough cash for 1+ months of expenses left. Core team has changed a once over last 2+ years. And there is still no traction. He was almost in tears when he shared his experience and that is when i knew he was probably being very honest and perhaps it was a form of release to talk it out too.

Now I usually try my best not to tell people what to do because i believe there are many routes to success and sometimes there is no one size fit all answer for startup decision making. What i like to do is to share what happened to me and situations i know well and let the listening decide if i am relevant in what i am saying.

But in this case, i found myself quite sure he should give up.  Here is my reasoning for when an entrepreneur should give up on a startup, take some time off, get a corporate job, regroup before deciding to startup again maybe 1or more years later.

If one or more of the below fit your circumstance, perhaps you should consider giving up.

1)  KPIs for traction not happening despite 1 or 2 or more pivots. Usually a startup will set usage metrics for each month and key ones for every 3,6, 12 months. If you are not even remotely hitting these metrics (read 50% or more) in spite of spending on marketing and tech to iterate and improve, then perhaps the market is  just not there as you envisage it.

2) Core team leaving in droves or all gone. Worse still, key founding partners change. This is a clear sign that the faith in the vision is gone. It can be due to (1), it can be due to your personal leadership style. Either way, it means you will have more problem getting the business growing. You will be spending time on people hiring, mgmt, on boarding and generally HR firefighting issues.

3) Pivoted more than twice with no results. And duration is more than 2 years. Personally, i would give anything up to 1.5 years for a startup to show some results. Results can be funding, revenue, traffic metrics etc. But i put it as 2 years as some people may be more patient than me.

It is also telling that in our digital space, 2 years is a very long time. eCommerce exploded in the last 2 years, so assumptions made in 2011 and probably being revised and pivoted now in 2013.

I know this can be contentious as there are companies that succeeded only after 2 years. But i think it depends on where you are at in (1), (2). If you are just getting by, some revenue, good team, then you have runway to hang on and try more times.

4) Mental and physical health facing major issues. If you are falling sick all the time, unable to concentrate, cannot sleep well, basically body going to hell and losing your mind, i think it is time to throw in the towel. Entrepreneurship is a great experience but not at the expense of your life. It is very selfish to expect your loved ones to suffer so greatly with you.

Feel free to comment and add on.